1. Ward deterioration huddle¶
Acute medical ward, 20 inpatients, evening safety huddle. Charted observations plus the nurse's latest progress note.
Question: can Jev read the nursing note for the signals that NEWS2 misses, while code keeps doing the arithmetic?
flowchart LR
V[Charted vitals<br/>FHIR Observation] --> N[NEWS2 in code]
T[Nursing note<br/>FHIR DocumentReference] --> J{Jev: 4 questions<br/>1 request}
J -- "Noul: new confusion" --> N
J -- "Score: concern" --> B[Escalation band<br/>max of NEWS2 band, concern]
N --> B
J -- "Noul: infection" --> S[Sepsis screen prompt]
J -- "Choice: pattern" --> P[Next-step bundle]
B --> R[Ranked huddle list]
| Question | Primitive | Task category | How the answer is used |
|---|---|---|---|
| New change in mental state vs baseline? | Noul | Detection | If the chart says Alert, a yes becomes Confusion (3 NEWS2 points) |
| Infection signs or suspicion? | Noul | Detection | With NEWS2 ≥ 5, prompts a sepsis screen |
| How worried should the team be? | Score (4 levels) | Scoring → Ranking | Floor on the escalation band; weight in the priority sort |
| Main type of deterioration? | Choice (9 options) | Classification | Selects the next-step bundle (sepsis, ECG/troponin, CT head…) |
Exact questions sent to Jev
{
"new_confusion": {
"type": "noul",
"instructions": "Does `nursing_note` describe a new change in the patient's mental state or level of consciousness compared with their usual baseline, such as new confusion, disorientation, agitation, hallucinations, drowsiness or reduced responsiveness?",
"criteria": {
"true": "A change from the patient's usual mental state is described, even if they have dementia or a learning disability at baseline.",
"false": "Mental state is normal, or unchanged from a known baseline such as long-standing dementia that is as usual."
}
},
"infection": {
"type": "noul",
"instructions": "Does `nursing_note` describe signs of a current infection, an infection being treated, or a suspicion of infection?",
"criteria": {
"true": "For example fever, rigors, purulent sputum, urinary symptoms, spreading redness, or an infection under treatment.",
"false": "No infection signs are described, or infection is explicitly ruled out."
}
},
"concern": {
"type": "score",
"instructions": "How worried should the ward team be about this patient right now, based on `nursing_note`?",
"criteria": [
"Stable or improving, no new problems; routine care",
"A minor issue to keep monitoring, with no clinical review needed today",
"A worrying change that needs a doctor to assess within the hour, such as a behaviour change, an event that has since resolved, or family saying the patient is not themselves",
"Acute deterioration happening now that needs immediate senior review or the rapid response team"
]
},
"pattern": {
"type": "choice",
"instructions": "What is the main type of clinical deterioration described in `nursing_note`?",
"criteria": {
"sepsis_infection": "Infection causing systemic illness: fever or rigors with fast heart rate, low blood pressure, new confusion or low urine output",
"respiratory": "Worsening breathing, rising oxygen requirement or low oxygen saturation",
"cardiac": "Chest pain, arrhythmia, or collapse from a heart cause",
"neurological": "Stroke, head injury, seizure, delirium, or reduced consciousness from a brain cause",
"bleeding": "Blood loss, such as black stools, vomiting blood, or bleeding with falling blood pressure",
"metabolic_renal": "Blood sugar, electrolyte, calcium, fluid balance or kidney problems",
"drug_or_substance": "Medication toxicity, over-sedation, or alcohol or drug withdrawal",
"other": "A concerning change that fits none of the other options",
"no_acute_change": "No deterioration: stable, improving, or at baseline"
}
}
}
Results¶
20 requests, 80 questions (4 per request) · latency p50 334 ms, p95 588 ms · 21,924 input / 3,113 output tokens · $0.0009
| Question | Primitive | n | Result vs reference |
|---|---|---|---|
new_confusion |
Noul | 20 | accuracy 100% (unambiguous 100%), Brier 0.009 |
infection |
Noul | 20 | accuracy 90% (unambiguous 100%), Brier 0.002 |
concern |
Score | 20 | exact level 85%, MAE 0.18 |
pattern |
Choice | 20 | accuracy 95% (primary label 85%) |
Does Jev add anything to NEWS2?¶
| Policy | Band matches reference | Under-triaged | Over-triaged |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEWS2 from charted obs only | 50% | 10 / 20 | 0 |
| NEWS2 + Jev (confusion → ACVPU, concern floor) | 95% | 1 / 20 | 0 |
NEWS2 alone under-triaged 10 patients. All of them had the key signal only in the note: ongoing ischaemic chest pain, melaena with a NEWS2 of 4, alcohol withdrawal with hallucinations, an anticoagulated fall patient becoming unrousable, undocumented delirium, a daughter saying "she's not herself", a non-verbal patient's carer reporting a change, a transient bradycardic syncope, a GCS drop from 15 to 14 on head-injury obs, and blood sugars of 14–18 in a diabetic foot infection. The ranking puts 7 of the 8 reference emergencies in the top 8.
Literal-reading check: for the patient with long-standing Alzheimer's who is "pleasantly confused… no change from his baseline", Jev returned new-confusion = 0.03. For the patient with Alzheimer's plus new delirium, it returned 0.97. The negation-heavy note ("No chest pain. No shortness of breath. No confusion…") returned 0.04.
Ranked huddle list (all 20 patients)
| Admission | NEWS2 charted | Jev confusion | NEWS2 + Jev | Jev concern | Jev pattern | NEWS2-only band | Final band | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Community-acquired pneumonia | 10 | 0.91 | 13 | 2.96 | respiratory |
emergency | emergency | emergency |
| Pyelonephritis, day 2 | 8 | 0.94 | 11 | 2.91 | sepsis_infection |
emergency | emergency | emergency |
| Acute kidney injury on CKD stage 3 | 8 | 0.90 | 8 | 3.00 | drug_or_substance |
emergency | emergency | emergency |
| NSTEMI, day 2 | 4 | 0.91 | 7 | 2.44 | drug_or_substance |
ward_review | emergency | emergency |
| Chest infection; on warfarin for AF | 4 | 0.06 | 4 | 2.85 | bleeding |
ward_review | emergency | emergency |
| Unwitnessed fall at home, on warfarin for AF | 3 | 0.98 | 3 | 2.99 | neurological |
urgent_review | emergency | emergency |
| NSTEMI, awaiting angiography | 3 | 0.04 | 3 | 2.72 | cardiac |
ward_review | emergency | emergency |
| Fractured neck of femur, post-op day 2 hemiarthroplasty | 2 | 0.97 | 5 | 2.24 | neurological |
ward_review | urgent_review | urgent_review |
| Hypercalcaemia secondary to multiple myeloma, on IV fluids | 2 | 0.88 | 5 | 2.03 | other |
ward_review | urgent_review | urgent_review |
| Fall at home, no injury, awaiting OT assessment | 1 | 0.79 | 4 | 2.00 | neurological |
ward_review | urgent_review | urgent_review |
| Fall with head strike, head injury observations | 0 | 0.92 | 3 | 2.46 | neurological |
routine | urgent_review ⬇ | emergency |
| Infective exacerbation of COPD, day 4 of antibiotics | 5 | 0.03 | 5 | 0.01 | no_acute_change |
urgent_review | urgent_review | urgent_review |
| Syncope under investigation, on telemetry | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 2.00 | cardiac |
routine | urgent_review | urgent_review |
| Acute asthma, day 2 | 2 | 0.03 | 2 | 0.35 | no_acute_change |
ward_review | ward_review | ward_review |
| Diabetic foot cellulitis, on IV antibiotics | 0 | 0.03 | 0 | 0.79 | no_acute_change |
routine | ward_review | ward_review |
| Right total knee replacement, post-op day 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 1 | 0.01 | no_acute_change |
ward_review | ward_review | ward_review |
| Community-acquired pneumonia, day 4 | 0 | 0.04 | 0 | 0.07 | no_acute_change |
routine | routine | routine |
| Elective admission for respite and medication review | 0 | 0.03 | 0 | 0.03 | no_acute_change |
routine | routine | routine |
| Inferior STEMI, day 3 post primary PCI | 0 | 0.03 | 0 | 0.01 | no_acute_change |
routine | routine | routine |
| Dehydration and AKI after gastroenteritis | 0 | 0.03 | 0 | 0.01 | no_acute_change |
routine | routine | routine |
⬇ under-triaged vs reference · ⬆ over-triaged
The only band error is the head-injury patient: concern 2.46 rounded down to urgent when the reference is emergency. Rounding a fractional Score is a policy choice. Using ceil above x.4 for this question would have caught it, but I did not tune thresholds on this data.